Global market conditions and systemic risks after Greece and Ireland’s financial crises (VOX)

Just how much systemic risk remains in the advanced economies? This column uses Markov-switching techniques to examine volatility in equity, interbank, sovereign credit-default swaps, and foreign-exchange markets. It finds that while overall systemic stress emanating from interbank spreads and foreign-exchange volatility has subsided, there are still pockets of systemic risk, particularly in sovereign credit default …

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This is no 1989 moment for the Arab world (Guardian.co.uk)

In guardian.co.uk By Harris Mylonas and Wilder Bullard Analogies will be drawn in the coming weeks between the recent popular uprisings, most notably in Egypt, and the events beginning in 1989 and continuing into the early 1990s that brought democracy to much of the former Eastern bloc. In what is known as the third wave of democratisation (the …

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Europe’s Arabian Reflection

Amidst the commentary on the incredible protests breaking across the capitals of the Middle East, one of the most common reactions is that of suprise; European commentators seem genuinely startled to discover, that on their southern frontier there are peoples, equal in number to themselves, ready to stand, and be counted. In many ways, however, …

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Predictions for 2010 (Revisited)

Around this time last year, I did something that commentators are frequently advised not to do: I made predictions of how events in Europe would unfold in 2010. As a year has now passed, it is time to take a look back and briefly take stock of how those fared. • Prediction 1) For the first …

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A declaration of dependence? (Hürriyet)

In  Hürriyet Daily News and Economic Review ERIC GRYNAVISKI – HARRIS MYLONAS In 2008, Kosovo declared its independence; on July 22, the International Court of Justice ruled that its declaration was legal. In many parts of the West, especially in Washington, this news was greeted with applause. Reading the Kosovo Declaration of Independence, however, one is amazed at the …

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Is Germany Acting Like a Hedge Fund?

In recent years, the German government has been very keen on attacking hedge funds. It all started in 2005 with Müntefering’s “locusts” diatribe, and the current Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has kept up the act, most recently by demanding that funds be placed “under surveillance” by intelligence agencies. Yet, observing German government behaviour over the last …

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On Leadership

I was recently sent an article written by Vaira Vike-Freiberga, former candidate for President of the European Council, which includes a couple of interesting comments on the vexed topic of Europe’s leadership – or lack thereof. Among these are the views that, first, the current crop of European leaders are little if at all worse …

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Quo Vadis Credit Growth in the MENA Region? (Roubini)

This blog examines the recent credit slowdown among Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries from three analytical angles. First, it finds that, similar to other regions and to its past history, a credit boom preceded the current slowdown, and that a protracted period of sluggish growth is likely going forward. Second, it uncovers a …

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The Rise and Rise of Nationalism

Something of a controversy was stirred two weeks ago, when Charles Kupchan declared in a Washington Post editorial that Europe was ‘dying’ of nationalism. His argument earned a surprise rebuke from Italian President Giorgio Napolitano, who was speaking at the Ambrosetti Forum, but his evidence is not so easy to dismiss. From German reluctance to …

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Democratic Deficit or Surfeit?

Does Europe need more democracy or less? In the late-18th to mid-19th century, the grand intellectuals of the era, such as Voltaire and Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel, also felt that Europe needed to overhaul its creaking system of governance. However, they were afraid of strengthening the role of parliament, fearful that this might further entrench …

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